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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.