How Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.